The short answer
Healthy monthly subscription churn at $5M+ Shopify Plus brands is 3–5% involuntary (failed payments) and 4–8% voluntary (chosen cancellations), totaling 7–13% combined. Above 13% combined is structurally under-built; below 7% is exceptional. Verticals matter: supplements run lower (6–9% combined), apparel runs higher (10–14%).
The longer answer
The two numbers to track separately are involuntary churn (failed payments, expired cards) and voluntary churn (customer-chosen cancellations). They have completely different root causes and fixes. Combining them in a single "churn rate" dashboard obscures the lever you should be pulling.
Involuntary churn at 3–5% monthly is the achievable band when you have dunning emails, smart-retry logic, and a card-expiry notification flow live. Brands without those three sit at 6–10% involuntary; the gap is the silent killer. The fix is the failed-payments playbook: smart retry on, three-email dunning sequence, card-expiry flow, portal card-update audit. Total cost: $3K–$18K. Recovers $300K–$500K/year at a $5M sub-GMV program.
Voluntary churn at 4–8% monthly is the achievable band when you have a save-the-cancel sequence (skip → swap → pause → credit) and a 3-email first-90-days onboarding flow. Brands without those sit at 9–14% voluntary; almost all of the gap is in the first 90 days when customers don’t yet have the habit. The fix is the subscription overhaul: tightened discount, surfaced skip, save sequence, sub-silo elimination, onboarding flow.
Vertical varies meaningfully. Supplements with monthly cadence and clear consumption run 6–9% combined churn at healthy programs. Beauty with mixed routine + discovery SKUs runs 9–12%. Apparel and accessories with quarterly cadence run 10–14%. Use the vertical band, not a single industry number, when assessing your program.